Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.620862 1.837622 2.068646 2.332764 2.625910 2.940841 3.304313
2024-12-15 1.387120 1.696272 2.047345 2.473809 2.976008 3.546683 4.242243
2024-12-22 1.171590 1.540020 1.984244 2.555154 3.264817 4.113004 5.198015
2024-12-29 1.040640 1.465365 2.007261 2.741150 3.699689 4.898701 6.499949
2025-01-05 0.860746 1.301010 1.896051 2.745412 3.910423 5.433894 7.554632
2025-01-12 0.728525 1.180049 1.825288 2.793623 4.184320 6.079386 8.819665
2025-01-19 0.609518 1.058187 1.735808 2.803819 4.407252 6.679680 10.085614
2025-01-26 0.537192 0.995159 1.723194 2.923233 4.798475 7.550829 11.808878
2025-02-02 0.469729 0.928164 1.694655 3.014291 5.157228 8.408883 13.591726
2025-02-09 0.404875 0.853702 1.642848 3.060987 5.451652 9.197350 15.340250
2025-02-16 0.351793 0.790516 1.600483 3.117068 5.765937 10.042917 17.245710
2025-02-23 0.292840 0.704025 1.503099 3.064438 5.892502 10.600595 18.744496
2025-03-02 0.237333 0.614614 1.389901 2.975749 5.961339 11.094093 20.223945
2025-03-09 0.202669 0.562491 1.340930 3.000941 6.236597 11.960843 22.397153
2025-03-16 0.169526 0.505744 1.272730 2.979160 6.423681 12.694093 24.409085
2025-03-23 0.151673 0.482228 1.271986 3.094472 6.884669 13.953194 27.433433
2025-03-30 0.124334 0.426398 1.188418 3.023172 6.972117 14.542686 29.320598
2025-04-06 0.105203 0.387652 1.137429 3.015069 7.185391 15.383243 31.725568
2025-04-13 0.087829 0.348601 1.077865 2.978142 7.333628 16.111150 33.975750
2025-04-20 0.078402 0.331602 1.071570 3.064834 7.754069 17.399527 37.366426
2025-04-27 0.069263 0.312655 1.056436 3.127871 8.129064 18.626479 40.722766
2025-05-04 0.060027 0.290180 1.026943 3.150478 8.415101 19.694689 43.840920
2025-05-11 0.052492 0.271368 1.004263 3.187301 8.737475 20.861754 47.230683